Updated 12/31/23
Since the last week of October, InsideHitter has done the deep dive with over 100 teams to prepare preseason reports to see which seniors are returning for another year of eligibility, who has transferred in and out from other programs, which players have decided not to play in 2024, and of course what each team’s new recruits have signed on. Our original preseason rating and ranking was an algorithm based on all seniors graduating and all of last year’s eligible players returning. For some teams, this was very close. For others, it was clearly far off the mark.
The calibration process has been lengthy but very insightful as we comb through the details, reach out to individual players and coaches, and determine what the actual roster will look like on opening day 2024. Although our analysis provides greater detail and insight, there are still adjustments being made, injuries to account for, and additional transfers that will be processed for the January semester. Many times, when starting players are determined after January boot camps, we see additional movement or some players dropping off rosters as well. Many teams have a magic number that they would like to move forward with on their rosters and may cut or put players on practice squads. 18 is a common roster target to shoot for to provide backup for injuries and competition between positions. Last season we saw rosters vary from 8 to 22 players and expect the same in 2024.
We expect our first computer-based ranking to come out right around 2/1 to give us enough game data to be statistically viable. We will update ratings and rankings weekly throughout the season.
InsideHitter will also be doing various looks and reports on individual player statistics on a weekly basis.
Here are some comments on the updated and calibrated rankings:
Stevens has returned to the top of the rankings after determining that 5 anticipated graduates will be returning for an extra year of eligibility. All 5 were last year’s starters and major contributors including Percy Bickford, Louden Moran, Connor Feulner, Chris Varseveld, and Nathan Lancia. It also looks like they have retained every other player on the roster from last year’s squad including Koby Sherman, Tyler Hoke, Jess Knuckles, Phu-Quy Ho, and Phil Bone and have added transfer outside hitter from St. Frances D1 Jack Hershman. And if they are not deep enough, 7 top new recruits have been added from around the country. Here is a quirky side note… Three of the new recruit names are Nick Schmidt from NJ, Estaban Schmitt of Florida, and Ryan Schmid of CT. These 3 will join junior middle Hunter Schmidt of Hawaii. That’s just schpecial!
With the return of those players and the new additions, the Ducks are primed for success.
Putting all the right pieces around 6′ 9″ outside hitter Jacob LaBouliere can wreak havoc for opponents in 2024 and Wentworth has every intention of improving on their D3 tournament position from 2023. After dumping Lasell in 4 sets to win the GNAC, the Leopards won their first round NCAA playoff game against St. John Fisher and looked destined to upset Steven’s after taking the first set 30-28 but could not earn a trip to the Stevenson campus for the final 4. This season, Wentworth has added 6′ 8″ middle transfer from D1 SFU Brandon Dunz to the roster as well as OH Ryan Roller from Springfield. They lose Hunter Oshman (292 kills, 64 blocks) to graduation but have a roster with tons of size and athleticism to compete at the very top level. This team has one of the highest hitting percentages in the country and we expect them to be in the fight for a final 4 spot.
What will Juniata do in a post Kevin Duffy era? The full picture remains to be seen but we expect the Eagles to be flying high this season. Do you want the good news or the bad news about this years Eagle team? Let’s start with the bad and build up to the good… Duffy is gone along with his 235 kills and 119 blocks from the middle position in 2023. That’s big. You can’t replace a Kevin Duffy. They lose Max Cooley (187 kills, 133 digs) and Will Phelan (111 kills) to graduation. We expected dominance from 6′ 8″ RS Max Barr for the next three years for Juniata but he has decided to transfer to Hawaii. That is a big OUCH.
Okay enough of the bad news. Juniata is stacked with talent who have been waiting in the wings for players to graduate. They have MB Luke Hoffman (208 kills, 89 blocks), setter Reese Ganter (821 assists, 134 digs), and Pin Tyler Goldsborough (273 kills, 158 digs) ready to lead in their senior year. AND… they pick up a premier transfer from Elmira with junior outside hitter Alberto Mauricio. Mauricio averaged just under 5 kills per set and was second in the nation in kills with 359. These numbers put him in an elite group of attackers who led the nation in kills and kills/set that includes Mason Nissley, Jacob LaBouliere, Andrew Zaleck, Owen Wickens, Jared Moser and Jarrett Anderson. But let’s also note that Mauricio had the lowest hitting percentage of that group at .224. We will see early on how he adjusts to having a higher talent level around him and not getting as many sets as in the past. Despite the losses, Juniata will be a force to be reckoned with in 2024.
Southern Virginia has one of the more unpredictable rosters in D3 Volleyball. The Christian school has many programs that will require students to miss an athletic season and then return as a junior or senior to complete their athletics endeavors. The roster from year to year has more changes than outfits at a Taylor Swift concert. But the talent level remains one of the highest in the country. For 2024, both Sheaffer brothers are back, setter Tyler (725 assists, 39 blocks) will use his extra year of eligibility and junior outside hitter Christian (301 kills, .324 hitting %) should be dominant. 6′ 8″ middle McKay Walker is lost to graduation, but 4 juniors return to the lineup after missing last season including 6′ 8″ RS Kyler Evans, 6′ 4″ MB Kristo Puente, and 6′ 5″ RS Sam Candland. We expect the Knights to be an elite team, especially when playing at home in the Barn.
Rounding out the top 5 are CCIW powers Carthage and North Central. They are a statistical toss-up in rating points. Both teams have graduated top talent but both teams retain their top star and have exceptional freshman talent being added. Let’s look at Carthage first… Carter Schmidt and Zach Bulthuis have graduated, and Kyle Radecki will not be returning. But Mitch Geiger will be back as a super senior joining seniors David Markes and Drew Jansen who will lead the attack and Gene McNulty returns at setter. For NCC, Jared Moser returns as a super senior and 6′ 7″ setter Tyler Donovan will be poised for his senior year for the Cardinals. But losing Ben Williams, Jake Miller, and Jeremy Cardenas to graduation will have an immense impact. North Central has a massive recruiting class and has positioned themselves well for the future. They also add D1 transfer libero Danny Smithers from Concordia Irvine to their back row.
Other teams moving up the ladder from last year are Lasell, Cal Lutheran, Benedictine, Baldwin-Wallace, Misericordia, MIT and Hunter. We see Loras, Vassar, and SUNY-New Paltz taking a step back in 24.
Of the 14 new teams added to the D4 landscape for 2024, we see Hobart as the top rated first year team. Cabrini will not be offering a program this season. The new teams were hard to develop a scientific approach to ranking, but we applied a few formulas to estimate their first-year season success. Take that all with a grain of salt.
RECALIBRATED PRESEASON RANKINGS FOR 1/1/24
